Raw sugar futures on ICE are up about 45% from their February lows. A few things are behind it: crop problems in Brazil, India, Thailand, and Europe, plus high oil prices that make it more profitable for producers to turn sugarcane into ethanol (biofuel) instead of sugar. Plus speculation.

Technically, the uptrend is still intact. Though a lot of this is probably already priced in. But let’s say sugar keeps getting more expensive. Then what?

Sugar producers would see higher profits (all else equal). Candy and beverage makers, on the other hand, would face higher costs: they’d either have to take a hit to their margins or raise prices for customers. Sugar substitutes would start looking more attractive, too. And mills that can switch between making sugar and ethanol may start favoring sugar, potentially cutting the supply of biofuel and pushing its price up. A whole chain reaction.