Investment notes

Sanil Electric has grown on the back of a shortage of transformer capacity and an investment boom in data centers, renewable energy, and storage systems. Revenue and earnings continue to grow at double-digit rates, and production is running at full capacity. The business, however, depends heavily on a few large customers and on how long the current industry cycle lasts. Let’s take a look at what is driving the company’s results, where its strengths lie, and which risks could change the picture. ...

Progressive has effectively caught up with State Farm in US auto insurance market share and, according to S&P Global estimates, has even moved into first place on a trailing 12-month basis. The company continues to grow both premiums and its customer base. At the same time, growth is slowing, and the company’s current financial performance depends to a significant extent on favorable conditions in the insurance market. In this article, I look at what allows Progressive to maintain its strong position, how its economics work, which risks could quickly change the picture if they materialize, and what should be monitored after the position is opened. ...

Money held in a strong currency should not simply sit idle in a bank or brokerage account. The global bond ETF market makes it possible to build a portfolio for almost any conservative objective. There is no need to select bonds individually, monitor dozens of issuers, or regularly reinvest coupons: a single fund may hold hundreds or even thousands of issues. Let us look at how this market works, which funds fit which goals, and why a portfolio of ETFs is often more rational than idle dollars or a small collection of individual bonds. ...

Mark Develman, host of the “10k” podcast, spent two hours trying to understand why someone without a specialized degree or experience inside a financial institution believes he is qualified to advise people on their capital. The conversation was hardly flattering: Mark repeatedly played down my Bank of Russia license, media publications, years of experience, and investment results, while I never quite learned to defend myself with bold promises. No hard feelings – that is what interviews are for. Someone has to ask the “uncomfortable questions”; otherwise, they are simply boring to watch. Here is an abridged transcript. ...

A good investment strategy does not begin with a list of issuers, but with clear decision-making rules. The selection criteria, number of securities in the portfolio, expected holding period, conditions for selling, performance benchmarks, and acceptable drawdown should all be defined in advance. Without these rules, a portfolio becomes a collection of random ideas: one company looks appealing today, another tomorrow. A new report comes out; analysts raise their target price. As a result, the portfolio’s composition and, just as importantly, its risk-control logic often remain unclear even to the person who assembled it. ...

For many investors, “golden visas” and “golden passports” are closely associated with real estate: buying an apartment, house, villa, or commercial property to obtain residence rights or citizenship. The reason is simple: real estate is tangible and emotionally compelling – it is a physical asset that can be shown to a client, inspected in person and, at least in the client’s mind, sold as a last resort. However, investment migration is not limited to real estate. Depending on the country, other assets may also qualify: government bonds, bank deposits, fund units, stakes in companies and other financial instruments. As with a property purchase, this creates a genuine investment decision: the investor must assess the investment’s reliability, expected return, liquidity, lock-up period, non-refundable costs, inflation and currency risk. ...

Investors often reduce performance evaluation to a single question: how much money did I make? Of course, that is the goal. But a proper assessment requires more than one number: beyond return, we need to consider costs, currency, inflation, the investment horizon, risk, benchmark performance, and other factors. The same headline return can conceal very different financial outcomes. Consider two portfolios, each starting with 100 million rubles: after one year, both are worth 125 million (a 25% return). Yet their dynamics differ. ...

For Russian investors, real estate is first and foremost a tangible asset: there is a property, a tenant, a contract, and a clear monthly payment. This creates a sense of control: the property can be “touched,” and the tenant can be spoken to. Exchange-traded instruments, by contrast, are often perceived as an abstraction of tickers and charts, where “prices jump around on their own.” Both perceptions are not entirely accurate: investing in “bricks and mortar” involves complexities and risks that are rarely considered at the time of purchase – while exchange prices, in addition to investor emotions, also reflect real economic processes. ...

Work with the client began at the end of 2018. Her life circumstances had changed, and she now had capital that needed to be managed thoughtfully. Until then, another family member had handled the financial side of things, so the task was not simply to choose instruments, but to build the entire capital management process. At the time the stock market was being widely discussed in Russia, so the client decided to seek professional help – her main goal was to generate regular income. At the same time, she also wanted the capital to preserve its value and, ideally, grow over time. ...

When people talk about a financial safety net, they usually picture something simple: money “for a rainy day,” a cash reserve, a bank deposit. This is true – but only at the basic level. For someone with meaningful capital, the concept is broader: a financial safety net is not merely a sum of money, but a properly designed “Plan B”: a separate liquid layer of capital, insurance policies covering key risks, alternative residency options, contacts of specialized professionals in different countries, and clear instructions for trusted persons. All of this can be activated quickly and without damaging the long-term strategy. ...