Yes, you can “draw” returns in Excel. But why would you? An honest portfolio review.

There’s a problem with verifying investment reports like mine, they say. After all, you can “draw” whatever you like in Excel. Sure, you can. But why would you? If you’re investing your own money – as I do – you probably want to measure how effective your activity really is, to understand whether it makes sense at all… or whether you’d be better off just buying an ETF.

At least you should want that. It’s your capital.

That’s why I report things as they are. The good and the bad. Nothing fancy: brokerage statements, Excel, and standard metrics, such as TWR, alpha, beta, etc.

You can be the best chef in the world, but if the tomatoes are rotten, your soup will not be great. That’s more or less what the situation in the Russian equity market is right now.

So far, the results are:

• return: 2.9% per year
• maximum drawdown: -17.7% over 50 weeks
• alpha: -18% per year
• beta: 0.32

MCFTR: 11.8% / –18.0% / 50 weeks.

All figures are in rubles.

Now for the good news

• Markets are cyclical. Negative alpha today will be positive tomorrow. The goal is to outperform over the full cycle, not over a single stretch of time.
• Your personal financial result depends on your entry point. If we’re near the bottom now, the road ahead is upward.
• Stocks are a long game. At least 3–5 years – preferably longer. If your investment horizon is one year or less, bonds are really your only reasonable option. Indeed, they’re working quite well right now. But over the long run, bonds will almost certainly lag equities.