I have a question. You’re an entrepreneur and you want to become an investor. You meet two analysts. One recommends buying shares of “Company A.” In his presentation, he refers to the results of basic fundamental and technical analysis, explaining everything in fairly simple language that any reasonable person can understand. The analyst shows you, say, that the business is sufficiently profitable, its debt load is acceptable, talks about management and the long-term development strategy it has adopted — all of that is familiar and understandable to you as an owner/manager. The analyst assumes the market’s current undervaluation of the business is temporary, and that as long as the sky doesn’t fall, the positive trend will continue. And if it doesn’t, we’ll notice this and sell the stock before it leads us to catastrophic losses. Something like that. The second analyst tells you at the meeting that for the past ten days he has been sweating over his all-encompassing mathematical model. He analyzed in detail not only the company’s own financial statements, but those of every issuer in the sector, plus comparable companies on both this exchange and neighboring ones. He decided not to stop there and took into account the macroeconomic backdrop, the social and geopolitical situation in the country, calculated a polynomial regression of changes in the population of Mars, its correlation with the birth rate of penguins in Antarctica and weekly returns of the S&P 500 over the past 50 years. For reliability, the model was adjusted for phases of the Moon, water temperature off the coast of Peru, the volatility of frozen orange juice futures, average annual buckwheat consumption in Eastern European countries, and the number of times Fed chairs used the word “recession” in speeches. Then he ran a Granger causality test between solar activity and the company’s EBITDA, checked the statistical significance of the distance from the issuer’s headquarters to the nearest McDonald’s and, finally, ran a 100000-scenario Monte Carlo simulation adjusted for geomagnetic storms, Atlantic salmon migration, and the groundhog’s mood on Groundhog Day — on the basis of which he concluded that shares of “Company B” should be bought. Suppose you bought both companies and a year later each was up, say, 8%. Which analyst would you keep working with?
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